Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 41.844549 49.290809 57.410256 66.887075 77.608844 89.326926 103.065454
2025-01-19 28.502862 37.857324 49.044423 63.262803 80.694088 101.202654 126.977160
2025-01-26 23.196496 33.725490 47.205762 65.413658 89.012159 118.188316 156.564837
2025-02-02 20.376825 31.918781 47.536301 69.671496 99.620147 138.064757 190.375611
2025-02-09 17.559915 29.492119 46.482329 71.632688 106.981176 153.866541 219.546077
2025-02-16 15.151545 27.183210 45.150684 72.827900 113.084417 168.052315 247.042810
2025-02-23 12.903719 24.710318 43.179827 72.735846 117.136481 179.421468 271.049730
2025-03-02 10.774061 22.050732 40.535173 71.250867 118.867588 187.419225 290.539634
2025-03-09 9.244715 20.146296 38.810859 70.914503 122.115375 197.551728 313.284665
2025-03-16 7.367728 17.271105 35.093995 66.964563 119.420272 198.691439 322.937055
2025-03-23 6.676680 16.534634 34.945440 68.815586 125.843292 213.598157 353.238035
2025-03-30 5.733465 15.118867 33.396175 68.100619 128.011906 222.041542 374.136452
2025-04-06 5.363322 14.957654 34.343523 72.177508 138.908276 245.414661 420.091214
2025-04-13 4.165244 12.713884 31.027491 68.332864 136.340842 247.697716 434.186691
2025-04-20 3.743869 12.191572 31.050814 70.624266 144.413089 267.342194 476.115652
2025-04-27 3.558214 12.218065 32.206945 75.156426 156.681718 294.354208 530.736043
2025-05-04 3.200757 11.708191 32.132298 77.242904 164.648046 314.556995 575.167480
2025-05-11 2.832257 11.074271 31.685783 78.514157 171.158420 332.552641 616.640254
2025-05-18 2.431031 10.233805 30.635564 78.416254 175.063288 346.226394 651.463591
2025-05-25 2.012115 9.207652 28.976072 76.836743 175.993474 354.728626 677.926437
2025-06-01 1.714858 8.482966 27.939794 76.478916 179.213967 367.313415 711.621902
2025-06-08 1.313245 7.231939 25.320526 72.275492 174.478910 365.435460 720.518048
2025-06-15 1.191527 6.997232 25.390165 74.245639 182.302684 386.531574 769.681257